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how the system thinks

The rulebook is versioned. Today: V4.7.

V4.7 — dated 22 May 2026 — is the playbook the desk trades by. It isn't a single rule; it's the same routine, run in order every morning before any trade:

  1. Read the market's trend

    The core decision — is the market trending up or down? Weighed from the weekly and daily trend, the broader S&P 500, the economy, how many stocks are taking part, which sectors are leading, and the options market.

  2. Weigh the stretch and the odds

    Has price run too far, too fast? And, using a model trained on the Nasdaq-100, what are the odds the next couple of weeks finish higher, flat, or lower?

  3. Decide what's allowed to trade

    Only now does it set the price levels that matter and the exact setups on the table — and it won't short while the trend is strongly up.

  4. Plan the exit and final checks

    Where to lock in profit when conditions are strongest, a last sweep for conflicting signals, and standing aside around major economic events.

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what drives a version change

The rulebook isn't revised on a schedule — every version change is driven by the Market Sensor. The sensor watches regime shifts, correlation breaks and shifting market structure across the tracked instruments; when it flags a rulebook recommendation, that becomes the next dated version below.

See the Market Sensor →
on the 18%
18% is the annual return hurdle the system is designed to beat over time — through disciplined planning, controlled execution, post-market review, and continuous rulebook improvement. It is not a monthly-return promise.

rulebook changelog

From the swing-mapping baseline to V4.7

  1. V4.7 today · current live

    Markov + HMM regime persistence

    A QQQ-calibrated Markov model now anchors the §17 probability framework — replacing the old fixed 50% base with a real 10-step forward distribution. An HMM runs daily as an informational divergence flag; it never touches the scoring math. New §5.4 introduced; §17 and §18 amended.

    + §5.4 §17 amended §18 amended
  2. V4.6 19 May

    Module-input expansion

    Driven by the 18 May correlation sweep: Macro (§6) adds TLT + XLE and a defensive-rotation tag (SPLV/XLU); Breadth (§7) adds IWM; Leadership (§8) adds IGV/FDN, a semi supply-chain pulse, and a Mag-7 dispersion check. The seven-module SBS architecture is unchanged.

    §6 macro §7 breadth §8 leadership
  3. V4.5 12 May

    §11B take-profit carve-out

    Under Structural Bull only (SBS +5…+7), the planner may emit a stop-sell-at-final-destination per long tier, with a regime-drift kill-switch if SBS slips below +5. Every other execution prohibition stays in force.

    + §11B SBS +5…+7
  4. V4.4.1 12 May

    High-impact events only

    The economic calendar is filtered to high-impact releases; medium- and low-impact events are dropped from all inputs, scenario logic, and gap-risk labeling.

    §3.1 §3.2 §15
  5. V4.4 baseline

    Swing-mapping baseline

    Pre-Market Planner becomes a pure higher-timeframe engine — regime, location, scenario mapping, activation, invalidation, and zone rationale. Narrow-zone discipline is mandatory: every activation band is tighter than 2.00 QQQ points.

    planner core < 2.00 pt bands

No retroactive edits. Every version is dated and stays accessible for rollback — the changelog above is the complete, public record of how the rulebook has evolved.

© 2026 18% Club · All rights reserved. Education only — not financial advice. Operated from Singapore. Past performance is not indicative of future results.